More Curlew chicks needed

There are three ways to increase the number of Eurasian Curlew in the UK; boost chick production across the breeding range, find ways to ensure more chicks recruit to the breeding population and/or maximise the lifespan of breeding birds. In a paper in Biological Conservation, Aonghais Cook and colleagues show that, while continued protection of wintering sites is really important, there appears to be little scope for conservation action that can further increase annual survival rates. The focus for conservationists has to be on increasing chick productivity and recruitment.

Curlew in Britain and Ireland

The once-common breeding Curlew is becoming harder to find in many areas. We know that productivity is generally low but could reduced annual survival rates also be contributing to the speed of disappearance? Here’s a quick summary of the story so far.

• The Eurasian Curlew is designated as ‘near threatened’, as discussed in this WaderTales blog.
• A 2017 paper by Sam Franks and BTO/RSPB colleagues described the main factors associated with the species’ decline in Great Britain. This work is summarised in a WaderTales blog called Curlews can’t wait for a treatment plan.
• Estimated breeding population declines between1995 and 2019 were 69% in Wales, 59% in Scotland and 31% in England (Breeding Bird Survey). This is not as bad as in Ireland, where 96% were lost between the 1980s and 2015-2017. See Ireland’s Curlew Crisis.
• Huge numbers of Curlew cross the North Sea at the end of the summer, particularly from Finland. Recent population estimates show that British wintering numbers dropped by 14% in just eight years, with an Irish decline of 13% in five years. See two reviews of wader population estimates, based upon waterbirds papers in British Birds and Irish Birds.

Survival of adult Curlews

As discussed in Measuring shorebird survival, a change in adult survival rates can have a huge effect on shorebird populations. If a species’ annual survival rate drops from 90% to 80% then numbers can half in just six years. We have seen these sorts of dramatic declines in populations of waders that travel between Russia/Alaska and Australia. There’s more about this in Wader declines in the shrinking Yellow Sea.

There are several factors that could be affecting survival rates of British-wintering Curlew:

• Warmer winters might be expected to lead to increased survival rates.
• The shooting ban, introduced in 1982 in response to declining Curlew numbers, was specifically designed to increase survival rates.
• As local wintering populations have dropped, competition for resources could have dropped, potentially leading to increased survival rates.

In their paper about survival rates of Curlew in North Wales, published in Bird Study in 2013, Rachel Taylor and Steve Dodd detected an increase in apparent survival from 86.9% to 90.5% that coincided with the cessation of hunting. They also found that mechanical cockle harvesting in the mid-1990s occurred at the same time as a reduction in apparent survival rate of Curlew from 95% to 81%, indicating the potential for management changes to have huge, unintended consequences for wintering Curlew.

Amassing the data

The research team analysed recoveries of Curlew marked as chicks and adults in the breeding and winter periods, in order to estimate annual survival and the proportion of birds available to recruit into the breeding population.

Thanks to the efforts of skilled, volunteer ringers, two large data-sets were available, collected during the period 1970 to 2018:

• A total of 1293 adult birds, 144 juveniles and 14,277 chicks were ringed in their breeding grounds across Great Britain.
• During the winter period, 4403 Curlew were caught and ringed in five key sites – the Severn Estuary, the Tees Estuary, the Wash, Traeth Lavan and the Moray Firth (see map). Supplementary colour-ring sightings were available for the Wash, Tees and Severn.

Full details of how data were used and how models were developed are provided in the paper.

How well do Curlew survive?

Analysis of breeding season data for the period 1970 to 2018 indicates that the average annual survival was 89.8% (confidence interval 0.871–0.920) for adults and 32.6% (0.278–0.378) for first-years. The period of steepest population decline, between 1983 to 1991, coincided with lower survival in both age classes. Encouragingly, since 1996, survival has increased to 92.2% (0.886–0.948) for adults and 39.0% (0.304–0.484) for first-years.

The British and Irish wintering population of Curlew is drawn from a vast area, with birds arriving from as far as Russia and lots of birds from Finland. In a recent breeding wader report covering the Fennoscandia region, no overall change in Curlew numbers was detected, with declines in Norway and Sweden balanced by increases in Finland (see Fennoscandian Wader Factory). From 1970 to 2018, survival rates of UK wintering Curlew averaged 88.4% (0.875–0.893), consistent with survival rates of the British breeding population (above).

Survival varied over time and between the five study sites but has been generally greater than 90% in recent years. Increases in survival were recorded on the Severn Estuary and The Wash.

Curlew struggle in winters with large number of frost-days and survival rates drop significantly, both in that winter and over the subsequent year

Survival was lower in winters with a greater number of days of air frost, an effect exacerbated in successive cold winters. Cold weather may have contributed to low survival in the 1980s, a pattern also evident in the analysis of breeding season data.

Resources may limit numbers. The study suggests that, for four out of five sites, survival was lower in years in which the number of Curlew on a site was higher.

Nationally, the research team found no strong evidence that the hunting ban had increased survival rates. However, there appeared to be local effects on The Severn Estuary and on the Wash. It is unfortunate that national bag data are not available to indicate whether Curlew hunting was particularly prevalent in these two estuaries in the period prior to 1982.

What does this all mean for Curlew conservation?

Birdwatchers are helping to monitor annual survival rates by reporting sightings of colour-marked birds

Since 1996, the mean annual adult survival rate of the British Curlew breeding population has been about 92%. Despite this high number, the Breeding Bird Survey tell us that there has been an observed decline in breeding numbers of 3% per year. Demographic modelling suggests that four breeding pairs must be producing an average of only one chick per year between them. This low figure may come as no surprise to Curlew fans.

To achieve sustainability, the authors conclude that the current figure of 0.25 chicks per pair needs to rise to 0.43 chicks per pair. There are estimated to be 58,000 pairs of Curlew in Great Britain (paper in British Birds). Currently they might be producing about 14,500 chicks each year, on average, and they need to produce nearly 25,000 chicks. British Curlew need to fledge 10,000 more youngsters – every year – just to arrest the decline in numbers.

Personal reflections

Currently, annual survival rates of adults are consistently high but a couple of cold winters, changes to shellfish policy, tidal barrage developments, inappropriately-sited wind turbines and unrestricted disturbance could all have serious negative effects. It is important that we continue to protect the UK’s estuaries and the grassland feeding and roost sites that fall outside their boundaries.

Many Curlew spend significant amounts of time on farmland and recreational land that is not protected in the same way as estuarine habitats

There are a couple of gaps in our knowledge about Curlew demography. When do Curlews first breed and what are survival rates during the ‘teenage’ pre-breeding years? A working hypothesis would be that most breed at age two, with possibly some earlier and probably some later. More colour-ringing of chicks will hopefully provide better data on recruitment age and teenage survival rates. This issue was discussed in Teenage waders. In the meantime, perhaps more thought needs to be applied to avoiding disturbance of non-breeding flocks during the summer holiday season?

It is going to be important to understand how quickly juveniles recruit to breeding populations

It almost goes without saying – Curlews need to produce more chicks. Local conservation initiatives, whether by tenant farmers or dukes with vast estates, will help but raising 10,000 more chicks per year will likely require changes in land management policies. Can agri-environment initiatives be refined to deliver more Curlew? How do we integrate tree-planting and upland conservation priorities? Where should wind turbines be sited? And so much more!

Paper

In their summary of their paper, Aonghais Cook et al concluded that “In addition to increasing productivity, effective conservation strategies will need to maintain high levels of survival, which requires an improved understanding of population connectivity and demographic variation throughout the annual cycle.”

The full paper can be read here:

Temperature and density influence survival in a rapidly declining migratory shorebird.

Aonghais Cook, Niall Burton, Stephen Dodd, Simon Foster, Robert Pell, Robin Ward, Lucy Wright & Robert Robinson. Biological Conservation

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WaderTales blogs are written by Graham Appleton (@GrahamFAppleton) to celebrate waders and wader research. Many of the articles are based on published papers, with the aim of making shorebird science available to a broader audience.