UK Dotterel numbers have fallen by 57%

New research from RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, with University of Aberdeen (School of Biological Sceinces), Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and Natural Research Ltd

Male Dotterel brooding chicks: Alistair Baxter

Male Dotterel brooding chicks: Alistair Baxter

I have only once climbed a mountain to count Dotterel, with Phil Whitfield decades ago, but that is enough to appreciate how many hundreds of hours of hard work lie behind the statement, “The number of Dotterel breeding in the UK declined by over half between 1987/88 and 2011”. This is the headline in a new paper published in the November 2015 issue of the BTO journal, Bird Study:

Changes in the abundance and distribution of a montane specialist bird, the Dotterel Charadrius morinellus, in the UK over 25 years. Daniel B Hayhow, Steven R Ewing, Alistair Baxter, Andy Douse, Andrew Stanbury, D Philip Whitfield & Mark A Eaton Bird Study 62:4, 443-456

As Des Thompson and Phil Whitfield wrote at the conclusion of their account for the 1988-91 Breeding Atlas, “The Arctic affinities of the British Dotterel, its beauty, its rarity and its likely sensitivity to habitat and climate change secure its place as one of our most fascinating breeding birds”.  Well-documented stories of females laying clutches in Scotland, to be brooded by their male partners, and then flying on to Norway to lay second clutches add an air of mystery too.

The 2011 Dotterel Survey was carried out under the Statutory Conservation Agencies/RSPB Annual Breeding Bird Survey (SCARABBS) programme and was funded by the RSPB and SNH (Alistair Baxter)

The 2011 Dotterel Survey was carried out under the Statutory Conservation Agencies/RSPB Annual Breeding Bird Survey (SCARABBS) programme and was funded by the RSPB and SNH (Photo: Alistair Baxter)

The population estimate of 423 breeding male Dotterel in 2011 represents a decline of 43% since 1999, when the comparable total was 747 pairs, and of 57% since 1987/1988 (981 pairs).  All regions except the West Highlands had lower numbers in 2011 than in 1999, with the core area of the East Highlands (the Grampians east of the A9) experiencing a significant decrease of 32% since 1999 and 56% since 1987.  This massif has become increasingly important, with 60% of the pairs in what amounts to 30% of the potential breeding habitat for Scottish Dotterel.

No Dotterel were recorded outwith Scotland during the systematic national survey but Bird Atlas 2007-11 fieldwork did add a record from Northern England.  In the absence of annual monitoring, a national survey can only provide a snapshot for a species.  However, information gathered during the four summers of the Bird Atlas project and as part of an ongoing detailed study suggests that the results for 2011 are representative of the current UK Dotterel population – and that the declines are therefore very much real.

Population changes across the range

Large-scale surveys of Dotterel are difficult, due to the remoteness of many of their breeding sites, and monitoring elsewhere across their European breeding range tends to be based on visits to particular sites or using transects.  Given the plasticity shown by the females – including an ability to nest in two countries in one year – changes in apparent numbers could potentially reflect the fact that birds breed further north in some springs than in others.  The best series of data come from Swedish Lapland, where Svensson & Anderson reported no changes in the population over the period 1972 to 2011.

In, Finland, Pulliainen & Saari observed that most females left their study area after egg-laying and hypothesised that this was in order to secure more mates further north. Lucker et al. have found evidence for higher rates of shared incubation by females at the more northern extent of the species’ breeding range than those breeding further south, providing some evidence to support this hypothesis.  Saari had previously estimated the Finnish population to be 90% less than in the early 1900s and suggested that hunting in early 20th century and overgrazing by reindeer may have been to blame.   Since the 1960s, the tree line has advanced and large areas of the mountain heath are now covered by scattered Scots Pines, making the habitat largely unsuitable for Dotterel.  Similar processes, associated with warmer conditions, could have major, negative impacts the number of Dotterel breeding in Scotland.

Is the SPA network working for Dotterel in Scotland?

Racomotrium heath is an important and increasingly rare habitat (Alistair Baxter)

Racomotrium heath is an important and increasingly rare habitat (Alistair Baxter)

The designation of Special Protected Areas (SPA), based on the results of the 1987/88 survey has been a key tool in the efforts to conserve Dotterels in Scotland.  This network of montane sites has helped to provide a focus for research funding and planning considerations.  Encouragingly, SPAs have supported between 50% and 60% of the population since designation.

The decline in numbers of Dotterel within and outwith the SPA network is of concern, but in terms of site occupancy, sites in SPA/SSSIs were more likely to be occupied than those outside the protected area network.  Protected area designation has been shown to be good for a group of northern species at the trailing edge of their distribution in the UK, although this effect decreased at higher latitudes and altitudes (Gillingham et al. 2015).

Explaining the declines

The well-referenced, discussion section of the paper looks at the potential reasons for the changes to Dotterel populations and assesses the available evidence.

Habitat change in the high mountains: Racomitrium moss heath has been shown to provide important foraging opportunities for Dotterel of all ages; this is a habitat that has been in a long-term decline over the last half century.   Studies have outlined how overgrazing and levels of atmospheric nitrogen interact, resulting in changes to the composition and extent of montane heaths.

A frequent prey of both adult and juvenile Dotterel is Tipulid (cranefly) larvae which require dense mats of moss vegetation.  Changes in composition and extent of Racomitrium heath could result in reduced prey availability, potentially affecting settlement decisions and breeding success for Dotterel.

Raven abundance has increased across much of the Dotterel's range (Map from Bird Atlas 2007–11, which is a joint project between BTO, BirdWatch Ireland and the Scottish Ornithologists’ Club)

Raven abundance has increased across much of the Dotterel’s range (Map from Bird Atlas 2007–11, which is a joint project between BTO, BirdWatch Ireland and the Scottish Ornithologists’ Club)

Predation in the breeding season: Predation of Dotterel eggs by Ravens can cause localised declines, and lower return rates have been reported for adult male Dotterel after clutch loss by predation. The period of decline in Dotterel is coincident with an increase in range and abundance, of Ravens in Scotland.  Although previous work has found no significant negative associations between Raven numbers and upland wader populations, this interaction may well warrant further investigation.

Disturbance: There is little strong evidence for widespread effects of increased visitor numbers, despite negative impacts of such activities on heath condition.

Pressures in wintering areas: Pesticide use and hunting on the wintering grounds, North Africa and Spain, have been suggested as possible factors in the decline.

More attractive conditions further north: Upland species, such as Dotterel, are cold-adapted and may well find northerly areas more conducive to breeding.  Without a flyway approach to Dotterel monitoring it is not possible to distinguish between a northerly shift in the breeding area of Dotterel and population-scale declines.

What next?

The 2011 Dotterel survey clearly shows the decline in numbers of Dotterel breeding in the UK and contraction to core sites in the East and Central Highlands.  Further, detailed work is required to understand the mechanisms driving the observed population trends, which may well involve studies in wintering areas and migration hot-spots, as well as a mixture of ecological research and ongoing monitoring in the mountains of Scotland.

The 2011 Dotterel survey has provided a spring-board for detailed research by Alistair Baxter, which is being written up as part of his PhD at the University of Aberdeen.  By repeating studies carried out during the 1980s by SNH, he hopes to see whether changes in habitat availability, habitat quality and invertebrate abundance can help to explain the decline in numbers in the last thirty or so years.

Ptarmigan is another montane species that will be targeted by

Ptarmigan is a key montane species that is being targeted by “What’s Up?” (Alistair Baxter)

Given how much effort has to go into any survey of upland species and the relative infrequency of national surveys, it is great that two recent initiatives are making the most of the calories burned to climb our highest peaks.  Many volunteers involved in the annual Breeding Bird Survey of upland squares now add an adjacent square to the original, randomly-selected plots, in order to increase the sample size in these sparsely populated but special bird areas.  Another valuable contribution is being made by mountain-lovers who know their birds and who are now contributing to the BTO Scotland led “What’s Up?” project.  This focuses on species that are sensitive to climate change and disturbance, such as Ptarmigan, Snow Bunting and Dotterel.

In an era of ever tightening budgets, it is unclear when it might be possible to organise another national survey for Dotterel.  Let’s hope that, until then, “What’s Up?” can help to alert us to distribution changes and that annual surveys of key sites might provide indications of national population changes. 

Dotterel was moved onto the red list of species of conservation concern on 3 December 2015.


 GFA in Iceland

WaderTales blogs are written by Graham Appleton, to celebrate waders and wader research.  Many of the articles are based on previously published papers, with the aim of making wader science available to a broader audience.

@grahamfappleton

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4 thoughts on “UK Dotterel numbers have fallen by 57%

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